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Cebu, one of the Philippines’ most dynamic economic hubs, faces a looming energy crunch that threatens not only everyday life but also long-term economic growth and public safety.
Despite being a key manufacturing, services, tourism, and business process outsourcing hub, Cebu’s current generation capacity cannot keep pace with consumption, forcing the province to import a significant portion of its electricity from neighboring islands via the Visayas grid.
Approximately 60% of Cebu’s supply comes from external sources, exposing the island to grid instability and external supply risks.
The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts a sharp rise in electricity demand across the Visayas, with peak requirements expected to climb from 2,464 MW in 2023 to 2,864 MW by 2026—and potentially reaching as high as 10,678 MW by 2050. Cebu alone is projected to account for roughly half of that load.
This widening gap between supply and demand raises the risk of more frequent power interruptions for an estimated 3.3 million residents, with ripple effects across households, businesses, and livelihoods.
The need for baseload power
With Cebu’s electricity demand rising by about 150 megawatts (MW) each year, the island is increasingly operating with reserve levels below the 200 MW required to avoid voltage instability.
At the heart of this crisis is the island’s increasing reliance on imported electricity transmitted via submarine cables and the slow pace of new power plant development. Energy watchdog Cebu Electricity Rights Advocates (CERA), led by Convenor Nathaniel Chua, has warned that this growing dependence on inter-island power links leaves Cebu exposed to disruptions and system stress beyond its control.
CERA has called for the urgent construction of island-based baseload power plants, arguing that without new, stable generation capacity, Cebu’s reliance on “imported” power will continue to deepen. The group cautioned that failure to act could begin to erode Cebu’s economic momentum, as tightening supply constraints weigh on investment, productivity, and overall energy security.
Baseload power refers to the minimum level of continuous electricity generation required to meet basic energy demand. Traditionally supplied by reliable, non-intermittent sources such as coal, gas, or large hydroelectric plants, baseload power ensures grid stability and a predictable supply even outside peak demand hours. For Cebu, generating baseload power locally is seen as a cornerstone for long-term energy security and economic resilience.
However, anti-fossil fuel protests continue in Cebu. The Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PMCJ) urged a rapid coal phase-out and the closure of existing plants like Therma Visayas Inc., while opposing new fossil-gas projects such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, which it calls “a dirty source of energy.” The group has also pushed the government to accelerate the adoption of renewable sources like solar and wind.
While government officials acknowledged the importance of renewables, they warned that wind and solar alone cannot yet guarantee a stable power supply. ““Just because we are pushing for RE, doesn’t mean that we want to abandon baseload. Baseload can be coal, it can be gas, it can be hydro, geothermal,” stated DOE Secretary Sharon Garin. “RE is a good source of energy, but it will not be enough.”
Red flags in Cebu’s power supply
In early January 2024, Panay Island and surrounding areas suffered a major power outage after multiple generating units tripped, leaving the local grid nearly powerless and forcing widespread supply interruptions acrossIloilo, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and Guimaras. The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) reported that the disturbance caused at least 452 MW of generation to be lost, effectively isolating the Panay sub‑grid and triggering widespread outages.
Economically, the blackout was severe: Iloilo City alone lost an estimated ₱3.8 billion in output, according to national officials, while local estimates placed daily losses at ₱400 million to ₱500 million and about ₱1.5 billion over three days for the broader area due to halted operations and reduced services.
In May 2024, Cebu’s peak demand hit 1,223 MW, surpassing the island’s available plant capacity of just 1,123 MW and leaving a shortfall of about 100 MW.
In 2025, the Visayas grid reached yellow alert status eight times, highlighting the growing strain on the system. By comparison, Mindanao recorded only one yellow alert during the same period. While a yellow alert does not mean an immediate blackout, it serves as a critical warning that available power is perilously close to falling short of demand.
DOE Undersecretary Mylene C. Capongcol also warned of looming risks in the Visayas’ power system. “There’s a potential critical supply situation in the Visayas, based on the initial simulation of demand-supply,” she said, emphasizing that the region’s energy balance will depend heavily on the timely addition of new generation capacity and the success of measures to manage electricity consumption.
Meanwhile, the Bacolod-based Alliance of Concerned Consumers in Electricity and Social Services (ACCESS) has added its voice to calls for action, citing concerns over an emerging supply shortfall projected for this 2026.
ACCESS President Wennie Sancho noted that the group’s position echoes warnings from the CERA, which has cautioned that Cebu could enter a “critical energy” phase within the next two years if decisive action is not taken to secure reliable, island-based power generation.
Referencing DOE estimates, Sancho warned that the combination of rising electricity demand and delays in bringing new power facilities online could place the Visayas grid under significant strain. The DOE has repeatedly flagged the region’s lagging energy infrastructure, cautioning that the widening supply gap may drive up electricity costs and trigger outages.
A recent report by the Institute of Contemporary Economics (ICE) found that the seven electric cooperatives serving Panay and Guimaras have significantly underinvested in power distribution infrastructure, spending only ₱2.38 billion of a planned ₱10.52 billion in capital expenditures from 2022 to September 2024. Only 3.1 % to 3.7 % of total spending was allocated to infrastructure upgrades, leaving the grid ill‑equipped to handle growing demand, modern technology integration, and resilience challenges.
Concerns are already mounting among business sectors, particularly manufacturing and export industries, which face higher operating costs and disruptions from an unreliable power supply. These developments emphasize the pressing need for strategic planning, timely investment, and reliable generation capacity to safeguard the region’s economic growth.
(Also read: South Cleanergy Pushes P512M Grid Connection to Deliver Solar Power)
Risks beyond blackouts: Public safety and infrastructure
In January 2026, the Binaliw landfill in Cebu City collapsed, burying workers and structures at the site that processed roughly 1,000 tons of waste daily. The disaster killed at least 36 people and injured 18, with debris reaching heights comparable to a multistory building and complicating rescue operations.
Cebu City declared a state of calamity, released emergency funds, and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) suspended landfill operations while investigating causes linked to geotechnical instability and poor waste management.
The Binaliw landfill collapse underscored how vulnerable Cebu’s infrastructure can be when risks are underestimated, highlighting the stakes for energy reliability and emergency preparedness. “Public safety must come first,” Chua said, stressing that while the group supports diversifying Cebu’s power mix and remains open to waste-to-energy (WTE) projects as a supplementary option, such initiatives should not replace baseload generation as the foundation of a stable grid.
CERA cautioned that unregulated open dumps pose serious environmental and safety hazards, lacking essential protections like liners and reinforced structures. The Binaliw landfill shutdown revealed the vulnerability of energy systems that rely on waste-to-energy, where a single site error can derail supply. Ahead of the DOE’s 2026 Green Energy Auction, CERA called for stricter project standards, guaranteed reliable capacity, and a one-kilometer buffer around landfills or WTE plants to prevent similar disasters.
Additionally, CERA noted that consistent baseload power is essential for critical infrastructure, including water pumping systems vital for fire safety. The group highlighted public safety risks stemming from unstable electricity, with power interruptions causing several fire hydrants along major roads in Cebu City to register low or zero water pressure.
The group attributed the problem to the grid’s inability to reliably support Metropolitan Cebu Water District (MCWD) pumping stations during outages or voltage drops. CERA urged authorities to prioritize dedicated and backup power lines for MCWD facilities to maintain steady water pressure and protect communities in case of fires.
(Also read: Reliance on WTE Projects Risky, Cebu Power Advocates Warn)
Calls for clear policy and planning
Responding to these complex challenges, advocacy groups and consumers’ associations are urging authorities to craft a transparent, time-bound energy roadmap for the Visayas region that ensures supply meets demand while also promoting affordability and sustainability.
“The need for a clear energy roadmap is urgent. This is not just about Cebu—it’s about the entire Visayas region facing a power crisis,” highlighted Sancho.
Currently, the NGCP is implementing 66 transmission and substation projects under its 10-year Transmission Development Plan to strengthen grid reliability. Of these, 15 are in the Visayas, including major initiatives like the Cebu–Bohol 230‑kV Interconnection and the Cebu–Lapu-Lapu 138‑kV Transmission Line.
However, the core challenge remains: establishing a local source of power to strengthen Cebu’s energy independence and economic stability. The island’s growth, driven by robust economic expansion, rising investment, and increasing urbanization, cannot be sustained without a stable and reliable electricity supply.
The push for baseload power does not reject renewable or supplemental sources; rather, it reflects the pragmatic reality that Cebu needs continuous, dependable electricity to safeguard its economy, maintain public services, and improve the quality of life for millions. Achieving energy security will require coordinated action from government, private partners, and civil society to build a resilient power system that meets immediate needs while supporting long-term sustainability. The path forward is clear: secure reliable power now to light up Cebu’s future.
Sources:
https://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/cebu-faces-critical-power-risk-in-2026
https://www.philstar.com/the-freeman/cebu-news/2026/01/04/2498680/cebu-facing-power-crisis
https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/14/economic-powerhouse-cebu-aligning-with-philippine-energy-security-goals
https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2024/01/05/2324148/red-flags-2024
https://dailyguardian.com.ph/access-backs-call-for-visayas-energy-roadmap-by-2026
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Binaliw_landslide
https://dailyguardian.com.ph/panay-power-grid-at-risk-due-to-underinvestment-by-electric-coopsys
https://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/climate-protest-in-cebu-calls-for-an-end-to-coal
https://mb.com.ph/2025/09/08/doe-considers-new-coal-plants-for-own-use-amid-power-woes