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The recent oil crisis highlights a hard reality: modern civilization still runs on fossil fuels, and disruptions to their supply ripple far beyond oil markets into food systems, inflation, and national stability.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil and fertilizer-related trade flows, has become a vivid reminder that energy flows are not abstract geopolitical concerns but the backbone of daily survival systems, including food production and transport chains.
What emerges from this discussion is a broader argument: even as renewable energy expands rapidly, fossil fuels continue to play a stabilizing role in a world still structurally dependent on them.
(Also read: Tight Margins, Rising Heat: The Philippines’ Power System Under Pressure)
Coal’s Role in Energy Security
The ongoing global oil crisis has once again underscored a hard reality: despite rapid progress in renewable energy, fossil fuels remain central to energy security. Spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia have surged to their highest level in three years, effectively doubling amid the second major supply shock in four years.
As a result, some countries are temporarily relying more on coal. Bangladesh has stepped up coal-fired power generation and increased coal power imports in March. The Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) is reported to be in talks to secure additional coal supplies, while Thailand has raised output from its largest coal plant in an effort to conserve LNG use.
Meanwhile, South Korea is moving to lift limits on coal-fired power output while also expanding nuclear generation. In Japan, a leading utility has indicated that it will maintain high utilization rates for coal-fired power plants.
Another clear illustration of coal’s role as a short-term stabilizer came during the European energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which left the EU among the hardest hit regions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that, in response to soaring gas prices and supply uncertainty, several European countries temporarily increased coal-fired power generation in 2022.
Some coal plants that had previously been shut down or placed in reserve were brought back into operation to help secure the electricity supply. Germany, considered to be a world leader in the green transition, accounted for a more substantial shift, reactivating around 10 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity.
As a result, coal generation in the EU rose and remained elevated for a period, even reaching record levels in 2022 compared with the previous year. The IEA also noted that strong growth in India contributed to higher overall coal-fired output that year.
While renewables reduce exposure to fuel price swings over time, today’s infrastructure gaps mean fossil fuels still function as the immediate “shock absorber” in global energy security systems.
Food Security Runs on Fossil Fuels
Fossil fuels play a foundational but often overlooked role in sustaining global food security, particularly through their connection to modern agricultural productivity and global fertilizer systems.
As Copenhagen Consensus President and author Bjørn Lomborg highlights, the global food system today is deeply dependent on fossil fuel inputs, especially natural gas, which is used to produce artificial fertilizers that enable large-scale crop yields. In his analysis of recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Lomborg stresses that “half of all the calories we consume from proteins, carbs, and fats are made possible by the use of artificial fertilizers, derived overwhelmingly from natural gas.”
This dependency becomes especially critical during energy or geopolitical shocks. A significant share of global fertilizer trade passes through key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that disruptions in fossil fuel supply chains can quickly translate into food system stress. When gas or oil flows are constrained, fertilizer production becomes more expensive and limited, raising input costs for farmers and ultimately affecting food prices and availability worldwide. Such disruptions risk worsening hunger conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions already facing food insecurity pressures.
Lomborg argues that this relationship is frequently underestimated in public debate, where fossil fuels are often framed primarily through their climate impact rather than their food system function. He writes that “without fossil fuels, half the global population would suffer a severe lack of food.” This is because fossil fuels power not only fertilizer production, but also mechanized farming, irrigation systems, transport, and cold-chain logistics that move food from farms to markets.
In this sense, fossil fuels act as an enabling infrastructure for global food security. While debates around decarbonization focus on reducing emissions, the immediate withdrawal or disruption of fossil fuel systems would carry significant risks for food supply stability, especially in import-dependent developing economies. Lomborg’s central point is that energy availability, rather than climate change alone, is a decisive factor in determining whether food systems remain stable, productive, and capable of feeding a growing global population.
Even the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has cautioned that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global “catastrophe” in food systems, as critical flows of agricultural supplies continue to be severely constrained along this key maritime route.
(Also read: Unstable Power, Uncertain Future: Cebu’s Growing Energy Challenge)
PH Boosts Coal to Stabilize Power Prices
The Philippines is moving to temporarily increase reliance on coal-fired power generation as a response to surging LNG prices and mounting pressure on electricity costs. Energy officials have indicated that higher global fuel prices, particularly the sharp rise in the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), which has climbed by about 82%, are forcing a short-term recalibration of the country’s power mix to protect consumers from steep rate increases.
Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin said that, without intervention, electricity prices could rise by as much as 16%. To prevent this, the government is preparing to ramp up coal generation while easing reliance on LNG in the near term. She also confirmed that the Philippines has secured assurances of a stable coal supply from Indonesia, following discussions with the Indonesian ambassador.
Garin added that the Philippines is prioritizing system stability amid global fuel shocks, stressing: “As a net importer of oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), we are acting with heightened discipline to preserve power system reliability in the face of escalating global fuel market volatility,” and describing the measures as “a decisive intervention to protect the grid, manage fuel use responsibly, and ensure that essential electricity services remain uninterrupted.”
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also acknowledged the need for increased coal imports, noting that while the long-term goal remains energy transition, immediate supply security takes precedence during crises. He said, “We are trying to move away from coal, but because of this crisis, we will reopen the importation and buying of coal so that our power plants do not run short of fuel, and to ensure that our power supply remains sufficient, especially across all parts of the Philippines.”
Energy Reality and the Cost of Ignoring It
The oil crisis ultimately reinforces a difficult but unavoidable truth: energy policy cannot be separated from real-world consequences on food, affordability, and human welfare. While the push toward decarbonization continues, recent disruptions have exposed how deeply intertwined fossil fuels remain with both energy security and global food systems.
As Bjørn Lomborg argues, overlooking this reality risks unintended consequences for those least able to absorb them, particularly emerging economies such as the Philippines. “It’s radical emission cuts that risk making food scarcer and more expensive for the world’s most vulnerable.” His broader critique points to a growing disconnect between policy ambition and on-the-ground needs, especially in regions where access to affordable energy directly shapes food availability and economic stability.
He adds, “The war in Iran has exposed the climate-food scare for the distraction it truly is. To end hunger in the developing world, the poor don’t need expensive carbon cuts or organic farming mandates pushed by rich-world activists. What they actually need is greater access to affordable fertilizer — much of it from fossil fuels.”
In this light, the lesson of the current crisis is not to abandon the energy transition, but to ground it in practical realities. Ensuring reliable, affordable energy, alongside a measured and inclusive transition, remains essential to safeguarding both energy and food security in an increasingly uncertain world.
Sources:
https://nypost.com/2026/04/13/opinion/how-the-strait-of-hormuz-saves-the-world-from-starvation
https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022/executive-summary
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/money/economy/981180/indonesia-ph-coal-supply/story