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The Visayas grid returned to yellow alert just hours after the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) lifted its earlier warning on October 15. Operating reserves stood at just 149 megawatts (MW), falling short of the required contingency reserve to cover sudden power plant outages or other disruptions.
The NGCP said the alert was triggered by outages at two major coal-fired power plants in the Visayas, compounded by scheduled maintenance on Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Line 2, which limited power transfers from Mindanao.
Since May, the Visayas has remained vulnerable to shortages, with Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin warning that red alerts could persist through 2028. Battery energy storage systems (BESS), power barges, and new generation facilities may help ease the shortfall, but are not expected to fully resolve it.
The DOE also warned that the anticipated super El Niño, rising electricity demand, and possible plant outages could further strain the grid, particularly during the dry months. DOE simulations show that blackouts remain possible if additional capacity from power barges and BESS fails to come online in time.
The latest alert is part of a wider pattern. NGCP data show that the Visayas grid had been placed under yellow alert 115 times and red alert 44 times as of September 28. Yellow alerts indicate dwindling reserves, while red alerts mean available supply is insufficient to meet demand.
(Also read: Relief in Sight? ERC Halts Expensive Reserve Market to Curb Power Costs)
Baseload Power, Renewables, and the Supply Gap
Solar generation surges during midday peak sunlight hours, raising renewable energy’s (RE) share of dispatched power in the Visayas to between 31% and 44%. However, because solar output varies with sunlight and weather conditions, its contribution can fall just as electricity demand rises, particularly during the evening peak. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help bridge this gap by storing excess daytime electricity for use when generation declines or demand increases.
To address this, the DOE is planning about 250 MW of BESS across Iloilo, Bohol, Leyte, and Cebu. The facilities would store excess daytime electricity, including solar power, and release it when needed to help stabilize the grid and ease supply shortages.
But while storage can help manage fluctuations in renewable generation, it does not eliminate the need for dependable power sources that can meet demand when solar production ceases after sunset.
Negros illustrates this challenge. According to Garin, the province can generate surplus electricity during the day, largely due to solar power. But as sunlight fades and solar output declines, electricity demand rises toward the evening peak, leaving less available generation to meet the region’s needs.
“Where then will the electricity come from at night?” Garin stated. “Negros alone cannot survive because there is not enough baseload.”
Additionally, capacity factors play a big role in energy security. According to the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), solar plants in the Visayas recorded capacity factors of 18% to 19% in 2024 and 2025, meaning they generated only about one-fifth of the electricity they could have produced at full capacity over the same period.
This is where conventional power sources such as coal come in. With capacity factors averaging 61% to 64% in the Visayas in 2024 and 2025, coal plants can sustain generation for longer periods.
As of April 30, coal-fired power plants accounted for 1,233 MW of the Visayas’ 3,449 MW in dependable capacity. This means coal supplies roughly 36% of the region’s dependable power capacity, underscoring its substantial role in maintaining a reliable electricity supply.
While coal plant outages have drawn scrutiny, Garin attributed the unplanned shutdowns of major coal-fired facilities in the Visayas to equipment damage, system failures, and rising electricity demand across the region.
“We overwork our coal power plants. Imbes na magmaintenance siya or dapat hindi siya 100%, talagang sinasagad natin kasi kulang ang supply (Instead of taking them offline for maintenance or operating below full capacity, we push them to their limits because supply is insufficient),” she explained.
The Visayas’ peak electricity demand climbed from 2,201 MW in 2020 to 2,691 MW in 2025.
For Philstar columnist Boo Chanco, the outages expose the government’s failure to account for the declining reliability of aging coal plants. With little reserve capacity to absorb disruptions, the simultaneous shutdown of six major plants meant the loss of even one more unit could trigger yellow or red alerts.
“It takes six or more years to bring new baseload generation online. Getting the permits alone often takes five years through DENR and LGUs,” he wrote. “By failing to act on plants that have been dead for years, the DOE effectively turned a chronic systemic disease to an emergency.”
Cebu is set to add 257 MW of coal-fired capacity through two projects. Therma Visayas Inc. plans to expand its Toledo City plant by 150 MW, with commercial operations targeted for 2028, while Cebu Energy Development Corp. is developing a 107-MW facility expected to come online in 2029.
The province’s longer-term power strategy also includes a proposed 500-MW gas-fired plant to complement variable RE sources.
Garin highlighted that new coal-fired power projects could still be allowed under exceptions to the government’s 2020 moratorium, particularly when needed to ensure energy security.
“If you have the correct technology, or what they call ‘supercritical,’ it will produce almost no emissions,” she explained. “We call that clean coal.”
The moratorium on endorsements for new coal plants was intended to diversify the country’s energy mix and encourage investment in cleaner alternatives. However, it allows exceptions for projects covered by existing commitments and those qualifying under subsequent DOE guidelines.
Still, these planned projects are years away from easing the burden of unreliable power on consumers and businesses. Garin acknowledged the delay, saying solutions were in the pipeline but stressing the need for coordinated efforts to address supply challenges in 2026 and 2027.
(Also read: Cebu Energy Alliance Presses For Power Crisis Solutions)
When Power Shortages Hit the Economy
Cebu’s electricity demand is growing by 14% annually, more than double the roughly 6% growth recorded elsewhere in the country. “Cebu is the fastest-growing. We don’t want Cebu’s economy to slow down because of electricity (challenges),” Garin said.
Cebu accounts for 42% of the Visayas’ electricity demand, ahead of Panay at 21%, Negros at 18% and Bohol at 13%. Yet its 993.2 MW of installed generating capacity falls short of its 1,254 MW peak demand.
Meanwhile, the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) warned that unreliable power was disrupting operations and driving up costs across key sectors, including tourism, manufacturing, and information technology. Businesses face added expenses for generator fuel, backup power systems, equipment repairs, and safeguards against outages.
Smaller enterprises are particularly exposed, with limited resources to invest in generators, uninterruptible power supply systems, and solar installations to keep operations running during disruptions.
“Company-level resilience cannot replace system-level reliability,” the CCCI asserted.
Meanwhile, Philippine Daily Inquirer columnist Jake Maderazo warned that persistent power supply problems in the Visayas could deter foreign investors, pushing them to consider other Southeast Asian markets with more reliable electricity.
“Its peers have much lower power rates and yet still have better generation per capita numbers. Malaysia (6,381 kWh), Vietnam (2,997 kWh), and Indonesia (1,332 kWh) exceed the Philippines’ 1,151 kWh,” he wrote. “ Admittedly, those countries enjoy greater energy self-sufficiency and/or sector-wide subsidies by their governments, thereby allowing them to have much lower power rates than the PH.”
He also pointed out that reliable baseload power is essential to sustaining economic activity, as factories, digital infrastructure, commercial establishments, and homes require a steady electricity supply.
“The planning, approving, and building of new power plants, grid lines, and power cables must begin while there is still sufficient lead time,” he emphasized. “Otherwise, without available and reliable power, why would investors go there?”
The Visayas’ recurring power alerts should serve as a national warning. As electricity demand grows, other regions could face similar supply gaps if generation, grid infrastructure, and maintenance fail to keep pace. The risk is not limited to temporary disruptions: prolonged power instability can raise business costs, undermine investor confidence, and constrain economic growth.
Avoiding that outcome requires action before reserves run critically low. The government must plan for demand well ahead of time, address the declining reliability of aging plants, and ensure that committed projects come online as scheduled. If the Visayas can face repeated alerts despite years of warning signs, the question is whether the country will act before the same pressures spread elsewhere.
Sources:
https://www.rappler.com/philippines/visayas/department-energy-visayas-more-red-alerts-2027
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2323252/visayas-power-woes-may-persist-until-2028-doe-chief-warns
https://www.philstar.com/nation/2026/10/13/2562783/doe-visayas-risk-grid-alerts-anew
https://www.philstar.com/nation/2026/10/08/2561620/ngcp-securing-more-power-reserves-visayas
https://opinion.inquirer.net/192970/the-critical-deficit-of-baseload-power-in-visayas
https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/10/09/2561835/regulatory-failure
https://insiderph.com/doe-backs-exceptions-to-coal-ban-amid-visayas-power-woes