A balance is necessary to tip the scales in favor of Cebu and Visayas’ energy security amid their power crisis. One solution is not enough, and it is crucial to combine two major sources together as the key to unlock steady energy production. In response to the projected annual increases in energy demand, this is how the region can ensure the reliability and affordability of power for its citizens.
“The power demand of Cebu year-on-year is exceeding the national average. If we are to even be able to match the phenomenal growth that Cebu is experiencing right now, we would have to be very serious about generating more [power] capacity,” said Cebu Governor Gwendolyn F. Garcia during Freeman’s “Powering Cebu” business forum.
“Power is a crucial and non-negotiable ingredient to progress,” she added. “Power gives life to the economy. If there is a lack of [electricity], then there is no economic growth to speak of.”
The good news is Visayas’ economic expansion is projected to increase according to the Department of Energy (DOE). However, this means that by 2050, both the Visayas and Mindanao regions will require a large percentage of the country’s power capacity due to their increased power usage.
“For the Visayas, we could have… dependable capacity of 3,296 megawatts. That will just be sufficient to provide the demand and the appropriate reserves. That means we will continuously rely on the transfer of energy from Luzon and Mindanao. However, take note that Mindanao is also growing fast,” said DoE Assistant Secretary Mario C. Marasigan.
“Luzon sits at a relatively comfortable reserve margin of 300 to 700 megawatts. Similarly, Mindanao has around a 25-30% power reserve margin. If you compare that to Visayas, Visayas is around 8%. So you can see the stark contrast between the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids,” added Aboitiz Power Corporation (AboitizPower) Thermal Group Chief Engineering and Projects Officer Don Paulino.
Cebu’s current total plant capacity is at 1,123 megawatts, according to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). Peak demand eclipses this supply, going as high 1,223 megawatts last May 2024. The interconnections with Luzon and Mindanao may supplement the extra 100 megawatts needed for Cebu.
Cebu plays a pivotal role in the region’s power distribution, demanding about half the power needs in Visayas which is predicted to increase from 2,464 megawatts in 2023 to 2,864 megawatts by 2026 and to 10,678 megawatts by 2050. As the connection hub for the entire Visayas, power will pass through Cebu first, leaving the rest of the Visayan islands with the mere remainder of energy after its consumption.
AboitizPower’s Paulino reports that the company’s reinforcements of baseload plants provide a stronghold for power balance amid the intermittency of renewable energy sources in development to augment the region’s power supply.
“The direction to have renewable energy is very important, not just from a climate change [lens], but also from a mix perspective,” he maintained. “However, because the sun can only provide power from 10am to 2pm, what happens whenever there is no sun? What happens when there is no wind? For us to be more renewable, we need to be able to complement that with a proper baseload.”
In response to the urgent needs of the country, the DOE has provided power producers with exemptions from the coal moratorium to serve as baseloads. Currently, there are 51 potential coal projects initiated by the NGCP, generation companies and the private sector. These potential coal plants have a total capacity of 20,300 megawatts, providing hope for mitigating the risk of a severe energy disaster.
“Even if we have the coal moratorium, we have accounted for more than sufficient coal thermal projects that are not covered by the moratorium. These are those coal thermal projects that have been approved as committed and indicative projects before we issued the coal moratorium policy in 2020,” Marasigan said. “One of those projects will be in Cebu, and hopefully this could augment the baseload requirement in Metro Cebu.”