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To improve energy security, the Department of Energy (DOE) is firmly committed to accelerating the deployment of renewable energy (RE), aiming to increase its share in the country’s power generation mix to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.
“In 2025 alone, we successfully conducted GEA-3 (Green Energy Auction) which generated 6.7 gigawatts (GW) from eleven winning bids and GEA-4, which secured 10.20 GW of RE capacity across solar, wind, and integrated renewable energy and storage system (IRESS) technologies for delivery between 2026 and 2029,” stated DOE Secretary Sharon Garin during the 2026 Energy Forum of the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP).
With recent global disruptions highlighting the Philippines’ vulnerability to external energy shocks due to its reliance on imported fuels, Garin emphasized, “Energy security is inseparable
from national security.”
(Also read: Visayas Brownouts Highlight Need For Stronger Grid Infrastructure, Says Consumer Group)
Energy Security: Philippines vs Asia
But can RE truly secure the Philippines’ energy supply?
To help answer this question, PhilStar columnist Bienvenido Oplas created a simple way to compare energy availability using electricity output per person (kilowatt-hours per capita). He grouped countries into three levels: energy poverty for less than 1,500 kWh per person, energy affluence for 1,501 to 5,000 kWh, and energy abundance for anything above 5,000 kWh.
“The kWh per capita generation, the Philippines has 1,100, Vietnam has nearly 3,000, Singapore has 9,000, South Korea has 12,000,” wrote Oplas. “We are in a state of energy poverty, and energy transition from fossil fuels to variable RE is the least relevant for us.”
To put this in perspective, Oplas noted that the Philippines’ current level of about 1,150 kWh per capita was already reached decades ago by other economies—Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan in the 1970s; Australia and Japan in the 1950s–60s; Malaysia in 1988; Thailand in 1997; China in 2001; and Vietnam in 2011.
“We should go for energy abundance and not wallow in energy poverty,” he wrote. “Go for energy agnosticism and not favoritism (priority and mandatory dispatch for RE).”
Installed Capacity Is Not Real-World Output
The Philippines’ energy security concerns were brought into sharp focus during the power emergency on May 13, when transmission line trips in southern Luzon coincided with a significant amount of generation capacity being offline or operating below full output. The combined disruptions quickly tightened supply conditions triggering widespread shortages and rolling blackouts across affected areas.
While investigations are still needed into the cause of the line failures, the incident underscored a broader system vulnerability. With sufficient available capacity and flexibility in the grid, the resulting red alert conditions could likely have been avoided, as other plants could have compensated for those temporarily taken offline during repairs.
However, Ben Kritz of the Manila Times argued that plant outages are not unusual, adding that even in countries considered more energy-secure than the Philippines, a significant share of installed capacity is typically offline at any given time.
“Generating plants are delicate beasts, no matter what kind they are; that’s just how it works,” he wrote. “Variable RE (VRE), like solar and wind, simply aggravates that unavoidable reality because it is not available all the time, and while that can be counteracted to some degree by energy storage systems, the same challenges to maintaining ‘uptime’ still apply.”
This highlights why installed capacity alone can be misleading, since real-world electricity output depends on how consistently plants are actually available and operating. While capacity refers to the total potential electricity a system can produce under ideal conditions, output is the actual power generated at a given time based on real-world availability and constraints.
Actual electricity output is a better guide for energy policy than capacity targets. Kritz noted that despite sufficient installed capacity on paper, the Philippines’ low per capita output highlights an underlying supply gap and system inefficiencies.
“So the important question to answer is, why?” he stated. “The answer is ‘baseload,’ a word that makes RE advocates cringe and make pained expressions, because VRE, such as solar and wind, do not fit into that category….”
Why Baseload Is Crucial
Baseload refers to the minimum level of electricity that must be available at all times to keep the grid running reliably. Meeting this demand requires a diverse and dependable energy mix, including continuously available sources such as coal, natural gas, hydropower, and geothermal energy, ensuring sufficient supply even when some power plants are offline for maintenance or unexpected outages.
Despite the aggressive global push for RE, energy economist Dr. Lars Schernikau stressed that global coal consumption has continued to rise, reaching about 9 billion tons in 2026.
“Coal remains the single most important fuel and chemical reductant for producing the physical materials of modern civilization. Steel, cement, metals, and industrial heat… and coal sits somewhere in the middle of that supply chain,” he wrote. “When it comes to electricity, coal is still the largest single source of power globally.”
Coal plays a critical role in global food production, supplying much of the hydrogen used to make nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and ammonium nitrate. In China, more than 75% of this hydrogen comes from coal. Since about half of the world’s population relies on food grown with synthetic fertilizers, a rapid phaseout of coal could disrupt fertilizer supplies, increase food prices, and worsen food insecurity.
“Coal does not just provide electricity but the primary energy required to run our modern world,” declared Schernikau.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also reported that fossil fuel demand rose in 2025. Oil consumption increased by 650,000 barrels per day, driven mainly by petrochemicals and aviation, while natural gas demand rose by about 40 billion cubic meters.
While electricity powers modern technologies such as AI, cloud computing, and digital services, much of the world’s power still comes from coal. Accounting for about 35% of global electricity generation, coal remains widely used because it provides reliable, around-the-clock power and can be stored on-site for extended periods. In countries with abundant domestic coal resources, including China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the United States, it also helps keep electricity costs competitive.
In 2025, Oplas noted that countries such as China, India, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea expanded coal use, alongside rising power generation and strong GDP growth in purchasing power parity terms, as well as industrial expansion and job creation. He contrasted this with some European countries, such as Germany, the UK, Spain, and Italy, which have reduced coal use and seen weaker or declining power generation.
Moreover, Schernikau highlighted that global coal-fired electricity has continued to grow as demand for power rises year after year, with most expansion concentrated in Asia due to rapid industrialization, urbanization, and improving living standards. But also across Europe, when conditions turn cold and dark, only coal, gas, and nuclear power can reliably keep the lights on.
In late November 2025, a cold snap exposed Europe’s reliance on weather-dependent power as wind output fell sharply during a “Dunkelflaute” period. With limited battery storage, grid operators turned to natural gas, increasing generation by more than 40% to avoid shortages.
In the Netherlands, heating demand rose about 35% above the five-year average, driving a 45% surge in gas use in November. Gas storage covered most of the shortfall, with withdrawals jumping nearly 450% to keep supply stable.
“In short, if the goal is lower environmental impact, the practical answer is fairly straightforward… invest in more modern coal technology, optimize efficiency, and keep improving industrial systems,” wrote Schernikau. “Or, if you want cleaner air, build cleaner plants. If the entire world would run on the newest coal plants, we would need 1/3 less coal with 95% cleaner air!”
(Also read: Visayas Power Instability Deepens Pressure on MSMEs)
Rising Demand Outpaces Renewable Supply
Energy Institute President Andy Brown said that though electrification is accelerating, renewable expansion is still lagging behind rising demand. Consequently, fossil fuels met around 60% of new energy needs in 2024. He stated, “The result is a fourth consecutive year of record emissions, highlighting the structural challenges in aligning global energy consumption with climate goals.”
Another concern is that critical minerals are key to the energy transition, but supply risks are increasing. Demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths is rising quickly, while processing and refining remain heavily concentrated in a few countries.
“Interestingly, coal also plays a role in technologies often seen as alternatives,” pointed out Schernikau. “Solar panels, for example, depend heavily on coal-powered energy and industrial processes and coal-derived materials during manufacturing.”
For the Philippines, these global realities point to the need for a more pragmatic and carefully paced energy transition. While RE will remain an important part of the long-term mix, an overly aggressive shift risks outpacing the country’s current system readiness and financial capacity, particularly given the high costs of grid expansion, storage, and integration.
Ensuring energy security first is essential to sustaining economic growth and poverty reduction. Reliable and affordable power underpins industrial activity, job creation, and household welfare. In this context, a balanced approach that strengthens baseload supply while gradually scaling renewables may be more realistic than the rapid displacement of existing sources.
Sources:
DOE Sec. Sharon Garin, keynote address at the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) Energy Forum 2026, Manila, Philippines, May 26, 2026.
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=ejap.pilipinas&set=a.1297606742543353
https://www.pna.gov.ph/index.php/articles/1159659
https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/05/31/opinion/columns/a-better-goal-for-energy-expansion/2354989
https://unpopular-truth.com/2026/03/18/the-new-renaissance-of-coal/
https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/09/-coal-industrialization-and-gdp-expansion/