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The Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing measures to prevent possible power interruptions in the Visayas, where tight electricity supply is expected during the coming dry months. Officials said the region remains the most vulnerable among the country’s three main grids, with supply issues also likely to affect Mindanao.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin confirmed that while Luzon is projected to have sufficient power, the Visayas grid may experience pressure on supply levels due to delayed renewable energy (RE) projects and the cancellation of several service contracts.
“For Luzon, there should be enough power. It’s more in the Visayas area,” Garin said. “Because of the problem in Visayas, Mindanao will be affected because they export power to Visayas. But we do have programs in place to make sure there won’t be any blackouts.”
Supply Concerns And Delayed Projects
As of January, the Visayas grid has an operating margin of around 242 megawatts (MW), with an available supply of 2,554 MW against peak demand of 2,311 MW. However, DOE officials said that figure could narrow as demand rises and plant maintenance schedules coincide with the summer season.
The DOE’s ongoing three-year power outlook flagged the Visayas as a problem area, worsened by the termination of some renewable energy contracts due to developers’ failure to deliver on their commitments. Garin said many of these projects had been awarded through the agency’s application process and earlier Green Energy Auction rounds.
“Maybe had the projects come in for GEA-1 and GEA-2, then this would not even be an issue,” she said. “Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 basically show that we have to catch up because of the failure of the GEA winners to deliver.”
Planning for Peak Season
Garin said the DOE is recalibrating its power supply and demand forecasts for the dry months, with updated assumptions expected within a month. The review includes rescheduling planned power plant outages to avoid the high-demand period. “We’re rescheduling everything, coordinating also with the Energy Regulatory Commission on that,” she said.
To manage the anticipated tightness in supply, the DOE is reinforcing its contingency programs, including the Interruptible Load Program (ILP), energy conservation efforts, rooftop solar adoption, and additional bunker fuel reserves. “It’s just extra work, but the DOE is working on it and assessing what we will be doing come summer 2026,” Garin said.
Rising Demand and Price Impact
The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) confirmed that demand across all grids is expected to continue rising, driven by economic growth and population increases. NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza said that while the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program for the next three years has been approved, the Visayas supply situation remains “tight.”
“It will always increase. And the drivers are the same—population, economic activity, and development,” Alabanza said.
Market operators are also expecting higher electricity prices in the spot market. The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) projected average Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices in the Visayas to rise to between P6 and P7 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), up by about P1 from previous levels.
In comparison, Mindanao’s average is expected to be between P4 and P5 per kWh, while Luzon may range from P5 to P6 per kWh.
Ensuring Grid Stability
While DOE officials do not foresee widespread blackouts, they warned that the Visayas grid will require careful management to maintain stability. “Depending on the weather… we are expecting some problems in the Visayas and Mindanao area,” Garin said. “There won’t be a blackout, but we want to have a more stable grid.”
The DOE’s recalibration of its summer outlook, coupled with tighter coordination with the NGCP and the Energy Regulatory Commission, is expected to guide power sector preparations in the coming months.
Source:
https://manilastandard.net/business/314691431/energy-officials-warn-of-tight-supply-in-visayas.html