Table of Contents
Calls to phase out coal resurfaced in Cebu after climate advocates urged the Department of Energy (DOE) to cancel the permits of coal-fired power plants, arguing that facilities facing show-cause orders should no longer be allowed to operate. The July 16 protest, organized by the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PMCJ), SANLAKAS, and allied groups, also renewed demands for a faster transition to RE, which they said would provide more affordable and equitable electricity.
The protest took place as the Visayas grid continued to grapple with repeated yellow and red Alerts, leading to rotational brownouts in several areas this month. Despite mounting calls to accelerate RE deployment, coal remains one of the country’s key baseload power sources.
Power plants are built to meet different levels of electricity demand. Baseload plants supply the continuous minimum amount of power needed to keep homes, businesses, and essential services running around the clock, while intermediate and peaking plants are used to meet spikes in electricity consumption during busier periods.
(Also read: Visayas’ Latest Red Alert Signals Power Supply Crisis Is Far From Over)
Call for Flexibility Over More Baseload
The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) maintained that the Philippines has sufficient power generation capacity to meet electricity needs. The country’s total dependable capacity stood at 27,927 megawatts (MW) in 2025, compared with a peak demand of around 19,000 MW, suggesting a sizable reserve margin.
The group argued that the Philippines’ power challenge is not a lack of capacity, but an excess of inflexible generation. Around 18,511 MW, or 66.3% of the country’s dependable capacity, comes from coal plants designed to run steadily as baseload providers, even though actual baseload demand is estimated at only about 12,000 MW. This leaves more than 6,500 MW of excess baseload capacity during periods of lower demand, forcing coal plants to adjust output more often than they were designed to handle, which can increase wear and maintenance risks.
According to ICSC, solar power has reduced grid pressure during morning and midday hours, but risks emerge as output declines in the afternoon while demand remains high. The supply gap during these periods has exposed the grid’s vulnerability, especially when coal plants experience forced outages.
“The way forward is therefore not increasing baseload capacity but creating a more balanced and flexible generation portfolio,” stated the group. “Flexibility, however, extends beyond meeting energy demand. The grid also requires ancillary services to maintain frequency and stability during contingencies. Unlike daily ramping, these services are episodic by nature.”
The Germany-based project Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia echoed ICSC’s call for greater flexibility in the power system. It said variable RE can provide reliable electricity when backed by proper grid planning and market policies, noting that its output has become increasingly predictable and easier for system operators to integrate.
The project also found that variable RE is among the lowest-cost sources of electricity, adding that its generation typically coincides with peak demand, helping reduce wholesale electricity prices during those periods by 28%. Unlike imported fuels, RE sources are locally available and are not exposed to swings in global commodity prices.
The Case for Baseload Power
However, the National Grid Corporation (NGCP) highlighted that the country’s recurring grid alerts point to a shortage of dependable generation. It noted that 235 of the 240 red alerts recorded between 2016 and 2025, or 96.7%, were triggered by generation-related supply problems. At the time, available capacity reached 13,508 MW against a peak demand of 13,881 MW, leaving a 373-MW deficit.
The DOE has noted the addition of 4,046 MW in installed capacity, consisting of 3,544 MW of solar and 502 MW of wind. Despite these gains, yellow and red alerts have continued to occur, prompting questions about the effectiveness of the new capacity in addressing supply shortfalls.
Philstar columnist Boo Chanco pointed out that a plant’s installed capacity does not necessarily reflect the amount of electricity it can consistently deliver. “The capacity factor for solar is only 16 percent, and wind is only 33 percent,” he wrote. “This means one MW of renewable energy is not the same as one MW of coal, geothermal and hydro that we use for baseload.”
He further explained that installed solar capacity does not equal the same amount of dependable power for the grid. With a 16% capacity factor, the Philippines’ 3,544 MW of solar capacity translates to only about 567 MW of average output. As solar output falls during evening peak hours when demand increases, battery storage can provide only limited support, typically for two to four hours, rather than the continuous supply expected from baseload power.
“Our energy officials have, through the years, simply failed to ensure sufficiency of non-intermittent/ baseload supply,” he stressed.
Meanwhile, Rappler columnist Den Somera observed how the Middle East conflict exposed the Philippines’ vulnerability to global energy market disruptions, with rising fuel uncertainties directly affecting households and the economy. While acknowledging the need for a long-term shift toward RE, he explained that energy policy must also consider near-term security concerns and called for a more pragmatic approach, including the possibility of extending coal use as the country strengthens its energy resilience.
“For all intents and purposes, in the face of a continuing volatile global market, coal stands as the most reliable and cost-effective ‘baseload’ fuel capable of shielding Filipino households and industries from a total energy collapse,” he asserted.
He further argued that during periods of crisis, the variability of RE can pose challenges for grid reliability. High-efficiency coal plants remain valuable for providing steady, round-the-clock power that can help prevent widespread outages and reduce the economic disruptions caused by supply shortages.
“Extending the life of existing coal facilities and allowing for planned expansions is not a rejection of green energy, but a ‘no-regrets’ strategy to ensure the lights stay on while the RE infrastructure matures,” he stated.
(Also read: Joint Venture, Not Competition: Consumer Group Lays Out Proposal For ILECO 1 And MORE Power)
Where Coal Fits in the Energy Shift
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal remains embedded in Southeast Asia’s power landscape, particularly as countries prioritize energy security alongside decarbonization efforts. The fuel still supports roughly half of the region’s electricity generation, with Indonesia serving as the region’s main coal supplier, accounting for nearly 90% of production and about half of consumption.
“Across scenarios, the region’s relatively young coal fleet continues to provide flexibility and back-up capacity, including during supply disruptions such as the recent Middle East crisis,” the agency stated. “Alongside renewables, greater use of domestic resources – including hydropower, geothermal and existing fossil fuel production – can also support diversification.”
Despite its RE push, the ICSC acknowledged coal’s valuable role in maintaining grid reliability during the transition, adding that such facilities could provide reserve and ancillary services that support system stability as RE expands.
“The solution is allowing baseload plants to run as baseload to anchor supply while addressing the flexibility gap elsewhere,” it noted. “Enabling this differentiation allows the grid to maintain reliability, reduce forced outages, and ensure efficient use of existing assets.”
In the end, the ongoing debate highlights a fundamental question in the Philippines’ energy transition: can the country pursue cleaner power without first securing a dependable foundation?
Before addressing flexibility needs, ensuring adequate baseload supply must remain a priority, as it serves as the backbone of the grid by keeping industries running, supporting economic growth, and preventing widespread disruptions during periods of tight supply.
RE expansion and grid flexibility will be essential in the years ahead, but these efforts must be built on a stable power system. For the Philippines, the challenge is not simply choosing between coal and renewables, but maintaining enough reliable generation to secure energy supply while gradually transitioning toward a more diversified and resilient energy mix.
Sources:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BmZuC3yLQ
https://caseforsea.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CASE-TARGET-Final-Technical-Report.pdf
https://bworldonline.com/the-nation/2026/05/26/752123/ngcp-blames-plant-shutdowns-for-grid-alerts/
https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/06/01/2531859/its-available-baseload-stupid
https://www.rappler.com/business/opinion-recalibrate-philippines-energy-program
https://www.iea.org/reports/southeast-asia-energy-outlook-2026/executive-summary