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The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing a comprehensive energy master plan for Panay Island as initial studies point to a potential baseload power shortage by 2029, revealing the island’s vulnerability to disruptions in the Visayas grid.
The proposed Panay Energy Masterplan will outline short and long-term programs for power generation, transmission, distribution, energy efficiency and electrification, with the goal of strengthening Panay’s power system and allowing the island to operate independently during major grid disruptions.
Camille Roxas, supervising science research specialist of the Power Generation Planning and Development Section under the DOE’s Electric Power Industry Management Bureau, said the initiative was being developed under the directive of Energy Secretary Sharon Garin, an Iloilo native.
Roxas discussed the plan during the recent Visayas Power Forum, “Powering Business Growth: Grid Reliability and Electricity Price Outlook,” organized by MORE Electric and Power Corp. in Iloilo City.
Energy Risks
Roxas said Panay’s location at the end of the Visayas transmission network leaves it particularly exposed to transmission constraints and limits its access to electricity transfers from other grids during emergencies.
“Panay is located at the end of the Visayas transmission network and still has no transmission connection to Luzon through Mindoro,” Roxas said.
The island is considered the tail-end of the interconnected Visayas sub-grids because of its geographic position and transmission layout. Electricity generally reaches Panay through the Cebu-Negros transmission corridor, with the final connection made through submarine cables and transmission lines from Negros.
The proposed master plan is intended to address this vulnerability by ensuring sufficient generation capacity within Panay while improving its ability to transfer electricity to and from neighboring sub-grids.
It will also examine measures that would allow the Panay grid to operate in “island mode,” or independently, if it becomes disconnected from the rest of the Visayas grid during a major disruption or natural disaster.
“The goal is to ensure sufficient generation capacity for Panay while enhancing interisland power transfer capability so that Panay can also support other sub-grids during contingencies and natural disasters,” Roxas said.
The plan will also cover demand-side measures and energy efficiency, creating a development pathway intended to keep generation, transmission and distribution investments aligned with projected demand growth.
Looming Baseload Gap
The DOE’s initial assessment indicated that Panay could face a baseload capacity shortage by 2029, prompting the agency to determine what additional generation facilities would be needed on the island.
One potential source of additional baseload capacity is Unit 3 of Panay Energy Development Corp.’s power plant in La Paz district, Iloilo City, provided it begins operating on schedule.
The master plan remains at an early stage. Roxas said work began less than two weeks before the Aug. 5 forum and was still under internal DOE discussion. Stakeholder consultations with distribution and transmission-sector participants had yet to begin.
Roxas said Garin could eventually present the master plan to Panay’s governors during a meeting or convention of the League of Governors of Panay Island. No date, however, has been set for its launch.
Available Capacity
The Panay initiative forms part of the DOE’s efforts to address future power supply and reliability concerns across the Visayas.
DOE data showed that the region had 4,065 megawatts (MW) of installed generation capacity and 3,495 MW of dependable capacity, compared with year-to-date peak demand of 2,779 MW in 2026.
Renewable energy accounted for the largest share of installed capacity at 2,158 MW, or 53.1 percent, followed by coal at 1,346 MW, or 33.1 percent, and oil-based plants at 560 MW, or 13.8 percent. Natural gas accounted for 1 MW.
Despite renewables having the largest share of installed capacity, coal remained the biggest source of actual electricity generation in the region.
Coal-fired plants produced 8,058 gigawatt-hours (GWh), equivalent to 50.4 percent of total electricity generation. Renewable sources generated 7,565 GWh, or 47.3 percent, while oil-based plants contributed 371 GWh, or 2.3 percent.
“The challenge is that installed and dependable capacity are not always fully delivered to the grid,” Roxas said.
The DOE established a comprehensive power generation accountability policy in February 2026, setting operational, reporting and technical standards for generation companies. The policy is intended to reduce unnecessary forced outages and limit their impact on electricity prices.
The department is evaluating responses from generation companies that received show-cause orders and determining which firms should receive formal warnings or be required to implement corrective measures.
Capacity And Grid Upgrades
The DOE is also pursuing additional measures to strengthen the Visayas grid, including its directive for the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines to negotiate directly for 270 MW of additional generation capacity for ancillary services.
These services are needed to maintain grid frequency and voltage stability, particularly during periods of high electricity demand.
As of June 30, 2026, committed private-sector power projects scheduled to come online in the Visayas from 2026 to 2031 were projected to add 4,300 MW of capacity. These projects are already under construction or have reached financial closing.
Indicative projects could contribute another 30,000 MW over the same period, although these remain in the pre-development stage and have yet to secure financing.
The DOE is also promoting a more diversified energy mix by accelerating renewable energy projects and encouraging investments in battery energy storage systems. Its natural gas mid-merit auction is intended to procure flexible generation capacity that can support the system during periods of intermediate demand.
For Panay, the proposed master plan is expected to bring these measures together while addressing the island’s specific generation and transmission constraints before the projected 2029 baseload shortfall emerges.
Source:
https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/08/09/regions/doe-unveils-energy-master-plan-for-panay/2401418
https://mb.com.ph/2026/08/07/doe-crafting-energy-plan-for-panay-island