A recent report from the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) warns that both Luzon and Visayas could experience “scarcer power reserves” in May and June. If these shortages worsen, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) may be compelled to issue alert statuses.
According to Jephraim Manansala, chief data scientist at ICSC, Luzon may maintain stable reserves in April but could face yellow alerts by May. This might force it to limit electricity exports to the Visayas, which could also experience yellow alerts as a result.
“Although elevated electricity demand during summer contributes to power supply issues experienced in these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation,” he explained.
Transmission, a vital factor in energy security
The Visayas’ power supply is impacted by transmission — the network delivering electricity. Relying on imports from Luzon and Mindanao, the region faces challenges due to its five interconnected island grids, with varying transmission capacities that cause bottlenecks during demand surges.
Strong networks enable power transfer between islands, allow surplus areas to support those with deficits, and improve grid stability—especially in key load centers like Cebu.
Several developments and upgrades have been initiated to address transmission issues. In April 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. led the ceremonial energization of the CNP Backbone Project, a ₱67.9 billion initiative aimed at improving power transmission reliability across Cebu, Negros, and Panay islands.
Originally slated for completion in December 2020, the project was postponed multiple times due to factors such as COVID-19 restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and right-of-way issues. A temporary restraining order from the Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority further delayed progress in 2023. These setbacks meant that the project was completed over three years later than planned.
Officials and energy experts have warned that the Panay 2024 blackout, which caused billions of pesos in economic losses, may not be a one-time event. Unless delayed power infrastructure projects are completed, outdated grid protocols are revised, and energy sources across the region are diversified, Panay and nearby Guimaras remain at risk of experiencing further widespread outages.
The Cebu-Bohol Interconnection Project (CBIP) aims to improve transmission services and grid stability in Central Visayas, addressing growing power demand in Bohol and providing resiliency for the Bohol grid.
During the House Committee on Legislative Franchises hearing in January 2025, Energy Undersecretary Sharon Garin confirmed that the Cebu-Bohol Interconnection Project was delayed by four years—originally scheduled for completion in December 2020, with the revised target set for December 2024.
Additionally, the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project unifies the country’s three major grids, enabling a more stable electricity supply across regions. According to Garin, the project, originally scheduled for completion in 2018, was delayed by six years and finally completed on January 26, 2024.
According to the Department of Energy (DOE), the timely implementation of transmission projects could have mitigated prolonged power outages in the Visayas.
Substations are also vital for efficient power transmission, enabling voltage regulation, power flow control, grid stability, and integration of energy sources across the network. The ₱1.9 billion Granada 230-kilovolt (kV) substation, which will reduce transformer overloading in Bacolod and provide new connections for Negros Occidental, is set for completion by August 2028.
Meanwhile, the ₱1.36 billion Sumangga 138-kV substation will ease the Ormoc-Baybay 69-kV line overload and is due by March 2028. The ₱1 billion La Carlota 138-kV substation will address overloads in the Bacolod-San Enrique line, also expected by August 2028.
(Also read: Strengthening Cebu’s Growth and Energy Stability in 2025)
Blackouts triggered by NGCP’s shortcomings
However, the surge in transmission projects in 2024 was no accident—it came in direct response to a major power outage that hit Panay Island in early January 2024. This was when the island experienced a significant power outage that severely disrupted daily life and economic activities. The blackout resulted from multiple power plant failures, leading to the island’s isolation from the Visayas grid.
The economic impact was substantial, with Iloilo City alone incurring losses estimated between ₱400 million and ₱500 million daily, totaling approximately ₱1.5 billion over the three-day outage.
This massive power outage led to heavy criticism of the NGCP. Local officials, including Iloilo City Mayor Jerry Treñas, blamed NGCP for failing to upgrade transmission lines, which contributed to the blackout. Treñas called for a congressional inquiry into the issue.
Rep. Lorenz “Nonoy” Defensor also criticized NGCP for not completing transmission lines linking Cebu, Negros, and Panay, worsening the power shortage. He suggested that NGCP’s franchise “should be opened to more capable entities” if it failed to fulfill its commitments.
In June 2024, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) fined NGCP ₱3.5 million for delays in 10 projects, including the Cebu-Negros-Panay Backbone Project.
By December 2024, NGCP faced ₱15.8 million for delays in 34 projects. Penalties ranged from ₱100,000 to ₱500,000 per violation.
In early 2025, the government’s Maharlika Investment Corporation (MIC) announced its acquisition of a 20% stake in NGCP to address transmission issues in the power sector.
According to the Philippine Information Agency (PIA), 98% of NGCP’s projects from 2016 to 2024 were delayed, some by up to nine years. It explained that the MIC investment aimed to provide NGCP with the necessary capital to complete projects on time and reduce delays.
Additionally, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines noted that earlier completion of key transmission projects could have lowered electricity rates by up to ₱2 per kilowatt-hour.
(Also read: Electric Coops’ Underinvestment Threatens Panay Grid)
Why reliable energy matters
The DOE’s Philippine Energy Plan 2020–2040 projects that electricity demand in the Visayas region is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 7% until 2040. Cebu, in particular, is a major driver of the country’s economic growth, contributing significantly to the Philippines’ status as ASEAN’s fastest-growing economy.
A reliable power supply is essential for economic growth, as inadequate transmission can stall industrial expansion and deter investment. Strengthening transmission infrastructure ensures consistent electricity, supports industry growth, and attracts investors. President Marcos Jr. underscored this, stating that no region can thrive economically without stable and sufficient power.
The Visayas’ island geography makes reliable transmission especially critical. Gaps in infrastructure can lead to outages and voltage instability, affecting both homes and businesses. Upgrading the transmission network is vital to ensure better power quality, reduce brownouts, and boost regional resilience.
As the DOE states, “As the sole transmission service provider, NGCP plays a vital role in the safe and reliable transmission of electricity in response to system requirements and market demands.”
Recent events, such as the January 2024 Panay blackout and delays in NGCP projects, underscore the urgency of improving the grid. These challenges highlight the multifaceted importance of robust transmission infrastructure—not only for distributing electricity and integrating renewables but also for enabling economic development and ensuring national grid stability.
Sources:
https://www.panaynews.net/power-plant-outages-expected-in-luzon-visayas/
https://www.ngcp.ph/article?cid=16913
https://dailyguardian.com.ph/luzon-visayas-face-tight-power-supply-in-june-2025-study-says
https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/11/erc-approves-4-ngcp-projects
https://asianews.network/massive-panay-blackout-takes-toll-on-locals-business
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/01/05/2323533/blackout-iloilo-losing-p500-million-daily
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1884186/ngcp-explains-takes-heat-as-panay-outage-drags-on
https://tribune.net.ph/2024/08/31/erc-fines-ngcp-p35-m-over-slow-project-completion
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1240481
https://pia.gov.ph/doe-secretary-welcomes-maharlika-investment-corporations-investment-in-ngcp
https://doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/pep/PEP-2020-2040-Final%20eCopy-as-of-15-June-2023.pdf
https://tribune.net.ph/2024/03/26/cebus-economic-growth-and-impending-energy-crisis
https://dailyguardian.com.ph/power-grid-project-touted-to-propel-visayas-growth
https://doe.gov.ph/energy-information-resources?q=transmission-development-plan