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The Visayas entered August with its power supply still under severe strain, as fresh plant outages and limited imports from Mindanao triggered recurring yellow and red alerts.
The situation peaked on August 12, when the grid was placed under red alert for the third consecutive day. Available capacity stood at 2,191 megawatts, below the forecast peak demand of 2,420 MW, as several major plants remained unavailable and demand increased.
The latest alerts, however, reflect a deeper problem. The Visayas has endured more than two months of recurring yellow alerts, while at least 10 plants were on forced outage. Several generating units have been offline for years, steadily shrinking the grid’s reserves and leaving the region increasingly vulnerable whenever demand rises, or another power plant goes down.
“What makes the situation even more alarming is that these red and yellow alerts are hitting the grid during the rainy season, which is normally a period of lower demand, and at a time when economic growth has slowed to a six-month low of 2.6 percent,” pointed out Myrna Velasco of Manila Bulletin.
A yellow alert means supply can still meet demand, but reserves are thin, and another plant outage could put the grid at risk. A red alert means available power is no longer enough to cover demand and required reserves, increasing the likelihood of power interruptions.
(Also read: Barotac Viejo Solar Project To Power 136,000 Homes Upon 2027 Completion)
More Local Generation Is a Necessity
The outages have compounded a longer-running capacity problem. Data from energy stakeholders show 26 Visayas power plants have remained offline since 2021, while 16 others are operating at reduced capacity. Together, the forced outages and deratings have taken 1,055.8 MW of capacity out of the grid, according to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).
The Visayas has long depended on power imports from Luzon and Mindanao because its own generating capacity falls short of demand. Existing transmission links can deliver up to 250 MW from Luzon and 450 MW from Mindanao, but recent events have exposed the risks of relying too heavily on power from outside the region. A major earthquake in Mindanao in June, for instance, disrupted its ability to export electricity and further tightened supply in the Visayas.
“The Visayas dependency on power imported from Luzon and Mindanao must also be addressed as interisland resource sharing must only be a supplemental measure,” Anthony Almeda, president of NGCP, said.
The vulnerability is compounded by delays in transmission projects and the risk of damage to submarine cables. These constraints underscore the need to expand generation within the Visayas, giving the region a stronger and more reliable supply base instead of depending primarily on electricity imported from other grids.
The DOE said it is taking steps to stabilize the Visayas grid, including continued power imports from Luzon and Mindanao and the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS). Longer term, the government is developing a master plan to assess plant reliability, strengthen maintenance compliance, add power barges, and accelerate transmission projects linking the Visayas with Luzon and Mindanao.
But for many energy experts, the real concern is not the alerts themselves but the fragile system behind them. Thin reserves leave the grid vulnerable to plant outages and demand spikes, while unreliable generation can ultimately add pressure to electricity rates.
“That is precisely where stronger DOE oversight and discipline are urgently required to curb forced outages, protect supply, and prevent avoidable costs from landing on soaring electric bills,” stressed Fernandez.
The cost of electricity is closely tied to the balance between supply and demand. The Energy Regulatory Commission’s (ERC) assessment of first-quarter 2025 showed how additional supply can help bring down electricity costs. At the time, former ERC Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta said, “The downward trend in generation rates in Q1 of this year reflects the benefits of a new or additional power supply and steady operations of the spot market.” Higher net supply helped ease Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices and contributed to lower generation rates, underscoring how a wider supply margin can temper electricity costs.
The opposite played out in May 2026, when soaring demand and persistent power plant outages tightened supply margins and triggered red and yellow alerts. As supply failed to keep pace with demand, the average WESM price jumped 38.5% to ₱7.79 per kilowatt hour (kWh) from ₱5.63 per kWh in April, according to the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).
During a congressional hearing on the May Luzon and Visayas blackouts, the NGCP highlighted that generation issues were behind 235, or 96.7%, of the 243 red alerts recorded nationwide from 2016 to 2025.
For the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s Jake Maderazo, Visayas needs a stronger foundation of dependable, dispatchable generation that can deliver power consistently throughout the year. He noted baseload capacity remains essential to keeping the grid stable and ensuring uninterrupted supply.
“Baseload is critically important to investors since demand for electricity from factories, computers, and the digital infrastructure, commercial and residential real estate, and fleets of electric vehicles does not stop,” he wrote. “Electric power is simply the fundamental backbone of the entire economy.”
The NGCP agreed that the Visayas needs more baseload capacity to strengthen long-term energy security. Unlike weather-dependent sources like solar and wind energy, baseload plants can provide steady electricity around the clock, giving the grid a more reliable supply foundation.
The need is underscored by the region’s thin reserves, leaving little cushion against plant outages, transmission constraints, or sudden demand spikes. More dependable generation would give the grid greater room to absorb disruptions while maintaining stable supply during periods of high demand.
But the bigger challenge is staying ahead of rising electricity demand. As the Visayas economy expands, power needs are growing faster than new generation can come online, with a typical power plant taking about three years to build. This creates a persistent gap between demand and available supply.
Cebu is also moving to strengthen its energy security through a local power strategy. Cebu Gov. Pamela Baricuatro announced plans for a Provincial Energy Master Plan that would bring national policies, local priorities and private-sector investments under one framework. “The plan aims to make Cebu energy secure, climate-resilient and future-ready,” she said.
Stakeholders, meanwhile, called for a balanced mix of renewables and dependable generation, backed by energy storage and stronger transmission infrastructure.
(Also read: Panay Prepares For Power Supply Crunch With New Energy Roadmap)
Renewables Alone Cannot Carry the Grid
The Visayas is poised for a major expansion in renewable energy, but the pipeline may not immediately translate into reliable power supply. The DOE’s May 2026 project summary lists more than 3,880 MW of committed renewable energy (RE) capacity, compared with about 312 MW of committed nonrenewable projects and 420 MW of energy storage. Yet these projects must still clear hurdles involving permits, financing, land acquisition, transmission access and grid integration before they can deliver electricity.
More importantly, the sheer size of the RE pipeline does not necessarily reflect how much power will be available when the grid needs it.
Capacity factor measures how much electricity a plant actually produces compared with what it could generate if it operated at full capacity continuously. Independent Electricity Market Operator (IEMOP) data shows that Visayas solar and wind plants had capacity factors of roughly 18% to 23% in 2024 and 2025. Coal plants, by contrast, posted much higher capacity factors of about 61% to 64%, reflecting their ability to provide more consistent power.
In other words, a 100-MW solar or wind project does not translate into 100 MW of dependable supply at all times, underscoring why renewables need to be complemented by firm generation and storage.
The experience of the Negros Island Region illustrates the gap: despite its own geothermal, solar, hydro and biomass resources, more than 70% of its electricity supply is still estimated to come from imported coal and diesel generation.
For the Visayas, the challenge is therefore not choosing between renewable and conventional power, but building a mix that can reliably meet demand. DOE 7 Director Renante Sevilla said the government is weighing several policy options, including potentially lifting the coal moratorium, while continuing renewable initiatives such as the Green Energy Auction Program.
The priority should be a balanced portfolio that combines renewables with firm generation, storage, and stronger transmission.
From Regional Strain to National Risk
The Visayas may be at the center of the current power crunch, but the warning signs extend far beyond the region. Recurring forced outages, aging infrastructure, limited firm generation, insufficient storage and delayed transmission projects point to structural weaknesses that cannot be solved by emergency measures alone. When yellow and red alerts become routine rather than exceptional, they signal a grid operating with too little room to absorb the next disruption.
The stakes are also economic. Tight supply can push up prices in the WESM, with the costs ultimately reaching consumers and businesses. For an economy seeking stronger growth, unreliable and expensive electricity can also weaken the country’s ability to attract investment, particularly in power-hungry industries and regions such as Cebu.
The Visayas is therefore more than a regional test case. It is an early warning for the entire country. If electricity demand accelerates before reliable capacity catches up, the Philippines risks turning an already strained grid into a national constraint on growth. The question is no longer whether the country needs more power, but whether it can build that power fast enough.
Sources:
https://www.philstar.com/the-freeman/cebu-news/2026/08/13/2549008/visayas-power-supply-still-tight
https://mb.com.ph/2026/08/10/doe-still-has-no-clear-fix-to-power-supply-problems
https://opinion.inquirer.net/192970/the-critical-deficit-of-baseload-power-in-visayas
https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/07/26/regions/visayas-needs-reliable-power-supply/2391496
https://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/visayas-power-demand-outpaces-supply